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Use the trend, not the level.","harnessTax":"Cost per attempt in USD and success rate for the same model in different harnesses, as published by the HarnessTax study (UC Berkeley Sky and Arena, September 2026; 30 tasks, 3 attempts, 100-turn cap, 1 Sep 2026 price list).","cacheHit":"Prompt-cache hit rate, average input tokens per call and average cost per call by harness, from traffic through the Requesty router (April 2026, vendor-run, no sample sizes).","surveys":"JetBrains figures are the share of professional developers who use each tool at work, from three JetBrains surveys (State of Developer Ecosystem 2025, AI Pulse Jan 2026, State of Developer Ecosystem 2026). Stack Overflow 2026 figures are the share of respondents who used each coding agent or assistant in the past year.","topApps":"OpenRouter's Top Apps ranking, trailing 30 days of tokens through the date shown; only traffic routed through OpenRouter, so a harness that calls providers directly is undercounted. The late-August to mid-October jump for several apps is likely an attribution change on OpenRouter's side and is flagged in the changelog.","runRates":"Annualised revenue run rates in USD millions as stated by the company (primary) or reported by named press (secondary = true). Dates are the month of the statement.","users":"User counts as stated by the company on earnings calls or in posts (primary) or relayed by named press (secondary = true). Definitions differ: Copilot counts all users, Antigravity weekly actives, Codex weekly users until July 2026 when OpenAI began quoting a combined Codex plus ChatGPT Work figure."},"downloads":{"fetched":"2026-10-16","sources":["https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/range/last-year/{package}","https://pypistats.org/api/packages/{package}/overall?mirrors=false"],"note":"Weekly download counts, Monday-keyed ISO weeks, partial weeks dropped. npm counts include CI and mirror traffic; PyPI counts exclude known mirrors. 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GitHub stars / merged PRs","value":"100,000+ / 6,000","date":"May 2026","source":"https://developers.googleblog.com/an-important-update-transitioning-gemini-cli-to-antigravity-cli/"},{"label":"Opus share of Claude Code sessions vs chat","value":"54% vs 10%","date":"Jun 2026","source":"https://www.anthropic.com/research/economic-index-june-2026-report"},{"label":"OpenAI research org: agent-workdays per human workday","value":"3.1","date":"Aug 2026","source":"https://epoch.ai/data-insights/openai-coding-agent-spending"},{"label":"Agentic vs human tokens on OpenRouter","value":"~7x","date":"Sep 2026","source":"https://openrouter.ai/data/newsletter/cache-is-crucial"},{"label":"GitHub Copilot paid subscribers","value":"4.7M, up 75% YoY","date":"Jan 2026","source":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q2"},{"label":"Pull requests on GitHub that involve an agent","value":"1 in 3","date":"Jul 2026","source":"https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4"},{"label":"Claude Code share of public GitHub commits (SemiAnalysis, via Anthropic)","value":"4%, doubled in a month","date":"Feb 2026","source":"https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation"},{"label":"Developers using coding agents at work at least weekly (JetBrains, 15,000+)","value":"90%; 68% daily","date":"Jul 2026","source":"https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/"},{"label":"Respondents using AI agents at work; of those, daily (Stack Overflow 2026)","value":"26.2%; 63.1% daily","date":"Aug 2026","source":"https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2026/ai/data"},{"label":"Claude Code cost per user per month on Requesty","value":"$8 (May 2025) → $78 (Apr 2026)","date":"Apr 2026","source":"https://www.requesty.ai/data/coding-agent-cost-per-user-may-2025-apr-2026"},{"label":"Last day humans used more tokens than agents on OpenRouter","value":"6 Feb 2026","date":"Sep 2026","source":"https://openrouter.ai/data/newsletter/the-token-state-of-play"},{"label":"Distinct harnesses on the Terminal-Bench 4.0 leaderboard","value":"5 (35 rows)","date":"Oct 2026","source":"https://www.tbench.ai/leaderboard/terminal-bench/4.0"},{"label":"VS Code Marketplace installs: Copilot Chat / Claude Code / Codex / Cline","value":"78.8M / 28.0M / 15.6M / 5.6M","date":"16 Oct 2026","source":"https://marketplace.visualstudio.com/"},{"label":"Lovable projects created","value":"60M+ total; ~1M new per week","date":"Aug 2026","source":"https://lovable.dev/blog/series-c"}],"changelog":[{"date":"2026-10-16","edition":2,"summary":"Four new series from a research sweep on adoption, all with dated primary sources where they exist. Surveys: across three JetBrains waves the share of professional developers using Claude Code at work went from 3% to 18% to 39% in fourteen months while GitHub Copilot fell from 29% to 21% and Cursor returned to 12%; Stack Overflow's 2026 survey has Claude Code used by 65.5% of respondents in the past year against Copilot's 58.7%. Routers: OpenRouter's trailing-30-day top apps are Hermes Agent, Claude Code, Kilo Code and Cline. Companies: Cursor's stated run rate went from $1B in November 2025 to about $4B by June 2026, Lovable's from $100M to $600M in fourteen months, and Copilot's user count from 15M to 50M in fifteen months. Ten markers added.","changes":["surveys.jetbrains: work adoption by tool across the 2025 State of Developer Ecosystem (Apr-Jun 2025), the January 2026 AI Pulse (10,000+ developers) and the 2026 State of Developer Ecosystem (May-Jul 2026, 15,000+): Claude Code 3 → 18 → 39%, Copilot 29 → 29 → 21%, Cursor 12 → 18 → 12%, Codex 0 → 3 → 16%, Antigravity 6 → 6%, OpenCode 7% (https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/04/which-ai-coding-tools-do-developers-actually-use-at-work/; https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/). surveys.stackOverflow2026: coding agents used in the past year, n = 12,255, eighteen tools from Claude Code 65.5% to Aider 2.1% (https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2026/ai/data).","topApps: OpenRouter's Top Apps by tokens, trailing 30 days through 15 Oct 2026: Hermes Agent 53.8T, Claude Code 34.3T, Kilo Code 24.3T, Cline 20.5T, pi 12.9T, Codex 11.7T, omp 10.6T, Freebuff 9.7T, OpenClaw 7.5T, DeepSeek Harness 6.1T, Command Code 4.2T, OpenHands 3.4T, with a 24 Aug 2026 snapshot alongside for comparison. Caveat: the coding apps roughly tripled and Codex and OpenClaw rose about a hundredfold between the two snapshots, which looks like an attribution or coverage change on OpenRouter's side rather than organic growth; treat the August column as a different measurement until OpenRouter explains (https://openrouter.ai/rankings; https://codesota.com/agentic/openrouter-apps).","runRates: Cursor $100M (Jan 2025) → $500M (Jun 2025) → $1B (Nov 2025, cursor.com) → $2B (Feb 2026) → $3B (Apr 2026) → about $4B (Jun 2026), the last three via Bloomberg and TechCrunch sources; Lovable $100M (Jul 2025) → $600M (Sep 2026, lovable.dev); Claude Code over $500M (Sep 2025, press) → over $2.5B (Feb 2026, anthropic.com); Cognition $492M (May 2026, press) → almost $900M (Sep 2026, cognition.com). Press-sourced points carry secondary = true and hollow dots on the chart (sources in runRates.sources).","users: GitHub Copilot 15M (Apr 2025) → 20M (Jul 2025) → 26M (Oct 2025) → 50M (Jul 2026) from Microsoft earnings calls; Antigravity weekly actives 1.5M (Feb 2026) → 2.4M (Jul 2026) from Alphabet calls; OpenAI Codex weekly users 2M (Mar 2026) → 4M (Apr) → 5M (Jun) → 7M (Jul), all via press because openai.com returned 403, and not extended past July because OpenAI then switched to a combined Codex plus ChatGPT Work count (15M in August, scope unstated) (sources in users.sources).","Markers added: Copilot paid subscribers 4.7M (Jan 2026); one in three GitHub pull requests involves an agent (Jul 2026); Claude Code 4% of public GitHub commits (Feb 2026); JetBrains 90% weekly and 68% daily agent use; Stack Overflow 26.2% using agents at work with 63.1% daily; Requesty cost per Claude Code user $8 → $78 per month; OpenRouter: 6 Feb 2026 was the last day humans used more tokens than agents; Terminal-Bench 4.0 has 5 distinct harnesses across 35 rows; VS Code Marketplace installs; Lovable 60M+ projects.","Not added, for lack of a primary or a definition: Codex counts after July 2026 (combined metric), Claude Code weekly-active counts (Anthropic says they doubled but gives no number), Kilo Code and OpenCode self-reported user totals (3M+ and 16M+ monthly, company claims with no basis stated), Devin user counts (aggregator only), and amplifying.ai agent-PR estimates (declared-metadata heuristics)."]},{"date":"2026-10-16","edition":1,"summary":"First edition. Weekly download series for nineteen harness and agent-framework packages from the npm and PyPI registries (a year of npm history, 26 weeks of PyPI), the HarnessTax cost-per-attempt table, the Portkey first-call context comparison, the Requesty cache-hit table by harness, and six dated adoption markers. Downloads are the only series here that updates itself; everything else moves when a study or a company publishes.","changes":["Downloads: Codex CLI 23.9M and Claude Code 12.5M weekly npm downloads in the week of 5 Oct 2026; Claude Agent SDK 12.1M on npm and 7.6M on PyPI; LangGraph 12.2M on PyPI; AWS Strands 8.8M; OpenCode 3.0M; Google ADK 2.2M; OpenHands 190K; Aider 58K; Gemini CLI 407K after its June retirement for individual tiers (https://api.npmjs.org/downloads/range/last-year/@openai/codex; https://pypistats.org/api/packages/langgraph/overall).","HarnessTax (Sep 2026): GPT-5.6 Luna $0.030 per attempt in Pi vs $0.152 in Claude Code on SWE-bench Lite at 53.3% vs 55.6% success; Fable 5 $0.666 (Pi) vs $0.890 (Codex) vs $1.329 (Claude Code) at 96.7% to 97.8%; GPT-5.6 Sol on Terminal-Bench 2.0 $0.421 in Pi at 83.3% vs $0.976 in Codex at 78.9%. The site renders only a loader; figures confirmed from the study's own write-up as reproduced by digitalapplied.com (https://arena.ai/blog/coding-agents-harness-tax/).","First-call context for the same two messages: Pi about 2,600 tokens, Codex CLI about 15,000, Claude Code about 27,000 (Portkey, 13 Apr 2026, https://portkey.ai/blog/the-agent-harness-tax). Cache-hit rate by harness on Requesty traffic, Apr 2026: Claude Code 91.9%, OpenCode 89.0%, Aider 84.0%, Zed 80.1%, Roo Code 73.6%, Forge 63.9%, Cline 61.4%, Kilo Code 45.5% (https://requesty.ai)."]}],"surveys":{"jetbrains":{"waves":[{"key":"2025-05","label":"Apr-Jun 2025","n":"SoDE 2025"},{"key":"2026-01","label":"Jan 2026","n":"10,000+"},{"key":"2026-06","label":"May-Jul 2026","n":"15,000+"}],"tools":[{"tool":"Claude Code","values":[3,18,39]},{"tool":"GitHub Copilot","values":[29,29,21]},{"tool":"Cursor","values":[12,18,12]},{"tool":"OpenAI Codex","values":[0,3,16]},{"tool":"Antigravity","values":[null,6,6]},{"tool":"OpenCode","values":[null,null,7]}],"sources":["https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/04/which-ai-coding-tools-do-developers-actually-use-at-work/","https://blog.jetbrains.com/research/2026/08/ai-coding-agent-adoption-2026/"]},"stackOverflow2026":{"question":"Used in the past year (n = 12,255; fielded 23 Jun to 5 Aug 2026)","tools":[{"tool":"Claude Code","pct":65.5},{"tool":"GitHub Copilot","pct":58.7},{"tool":"OpenAI Codex","pct":29.5},{"tool":"Cursor","pct":25.5},{"tool":"Antigravity","pct":16},{"tool":"Gemini Code Assist","pct":14.6},{"tool":"OpenCode","pct":13.6},{"tool":"JetBrains AI","pct":12.8},{"tool":"Windsurf","pct":6.5},{"tool":"Warp","pct":5.2},{"tool":"Cline","pct":4.5},{"tool":"Pi","pct":4.4},{"tool":"Amazon Q / Kiro","pct":3.9},{"tool":"Mistral Vibe","pct":3.2},{"tool":"Kilo Code","pct":3.2},{"tool":"Devin","pct":2.9},{"tool":"Jules","pct":2.5},{"tool":"Aider","pct":2.1}],"source":"https://survey.stackoverflow.co/2026/ai/data"}},"topApps":{"through":"2026-10-15","window":"trailing 30 days","apps":[{"app":"Hermes Agent","trillions":53.8,"prior":41.3},{"app":"Claude Code","trillions":34.3,"prior":10.1},{"app":"Kilo Code","trillions":24.3,"prior":8.1},{"app":"Cline","trillions":20.5,"prior":5.3},{"app":"pi","trillions":12.9,"prior":1.4},{"app":"Codex","trillions":11.7,"prior":0.12},{"app":"omp","trillions":10.6,"prior":null},{"app":"Freebuff","trillions":9.7,"prior":null},{"app":"OpenClaw","trillions":7.5,"prior":0.14},{"app":"DeepSeek Harness","trillions":6.1,"prior":null},{"app":"Command Code","trillions":4.2,"prior":null},{"app":"OpenHands","trillions":3.4,"prior":0.026}],"priorThrough":"2026-08-24","sources":["https://openrouter.ai/rankings","https://codesota.com/agentic/openrouter-apps"]},"runRates":{"series":[{"company":"Cursor","points":[{"date":"2025-01","usdM":100,"secondary":true},{"date":"2025-06","usdM":500,"secondary":true},{"date":"2025-11","usdM":1000,"secondary":false},{"date":"2026-02","usdM":2000,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-04","usdM":3000,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-06","usdM":4000,"secondary":true}]},{"company":"Lovable","points":[{"date":"2025-07","usdM":100,"secondary":true},{"date":"2025-11","usdM":200,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-01","usdM":300,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-02","usdM":400,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-06","usdM":500,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-09","usdM":600,"secondary":false}]},{"company":"Claude Code","points":[{"date":"2025-09","usdM":500,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-02","usdM":2500,"secondary":false}]},{"company":"Cognition","points":[{"date":"2026-05","usdM":492,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-09","usdM":900,"secondary":false}]}],"sources":["https://cursor.com/blog/series-d","https://techcrunch.com/2026/04/17/sources-cursor-in-talks-to-raise-2b-at-50b-valuation-as-enterprise-growth-surges/","https://dealroom.co/news/134107-cursor-tops-4b-annualized-revenue/","https://lovable.dev/blog/series-c","https://techcrunch.com/2026/06/09/lovable-says-it-has-hit-500m-in-annualized-revenue-with-1-million-new-projects-a-week/","https://www.anthropic.com/news/anthropic-raises-30-billion-series-g-funding-380-billion-post-money-valuation","https://cognition.com/blog/series-e","https://siliconangle.com/2026/05/27/vibe-coding-startup-cognition-doubles-valuation-new-1b-round/"]},"users":{"series":[{"product":"GitHub Copilot (all users)","points":[{"date":"2025-04","millions":15,"secondary":false},{"date":"2025-07","millions":20,"secondary":false},{"date":"2025-10","millions":26,"secondary":false},{"date":"2026-07","millions":50,"secondary":false}]},{"product":"OpenAI Codex (weekly users)","points":[{"date":"2026-03","millions":2,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-04","millions":4,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-06","millions":5,"secondary":true},{"date":"2026-07","millions":7,"secondary":true}]},{"product":"Antigravity (weekly actives)","points":[{"date":"2026-02","millions":1.5,"secondary":false},{"date":"2026-07","millions":2.4,"secondary":false}]}],"sources":["https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2025/earnings-fy-2025-q3","https://www.microsoft.com/en-us/investor/events/fy-2026/earnings-fy-2026-q4","https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_events/2026/Feb/04/2025_Q4_Earnings_Transcript.pdf","https://s206.q4cdn.com/479360582/files/doc_events/2026/Jul/22/2026_Q2_Earnings_Transcript.pdf","https://constellationr.com/insights/news/openai-touts-broadening-codex-usage-5-million-weekly-active-users","https://www.businesstoday.in/amp/technology/story/openai-codex-celebrates-3-million-weekly-users-ceo-sam-altman-resets-usage-limits-524717-2026-04-08"]}}